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Transmission-dynamic model to capture the indirect effects of infant vaccination with Prevnar (7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7)) in older populations
Abstract
We developed an age-structured, transmission-dynamic, mathematical model to quantify the direct and indirect benefits of infant PCV7 vaccination. The model simulates the acquisition of asymptomatic carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae and the development of fatal and non-fatal invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals aged <2, 2-4, 5-17, 18-49, 50-64, and >or=65 years old. The model was parameterized using published US surveillance data, supplemented with data from published literature. The model predicts the observed incidence of IPD with good agreement and may be used to predict the impact of various vaccination strategies in the US or other populations yet to introduce PCV7.
Authors
S J Snedecor, D R Strutton, V Ciuryla, E J Schwartz, M F Botteman
Journal
Vaccine
Therapeutic Area
Infectious diseases and vaccines
Center of Excellence
Health Economic Modeling & Meta-analysis
Year
2010
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